Pakistan need one point from two matches to reach the Women's Asia Cup semi-finals

Fatima Sana's side sit second in Group A on two points and can secure a knockout place without beating India, which shapes how the rest of the group looks

Pakistan's win over Thailand in their opening fixture has left them in a position most of their recent tournaments have not. Two points from one game, with matches against India and Hong Kong still to come, means the arithmetic is already in their favour.

The top two in each group go through. India have taken both their fixtures and are certain of a semi-final, which leaves one place in Group A to be settled.

A single point from either of Pakistan's remaining games would be enough.

How Group A stands

India lead the group having beaten Thailand by 94 runs and then Hong Kong, the second of those built on Smriti Mandhana's 124 from 64 balls. Pakistan are second on two points from one match.

Thiland have been the group's most active side and have finished with two points of their own, taken from a six-run win over Hong Kong. They then lost to both India and Pakistan.

Hong Kong, beaten by Thailand and then heavily by India, have one fixture left and it is against Pakistan. That is the game Pakistan's qualification most likely turns on, and it comes after today's.

The win that changed their tournament

Fatima Sana chose to bat against Thailand and then set her spinners to defend the total, which they did comfortably enough for a 35-run win. Muneeba Ali Siddiqui anchored the innings.

It was not a performance that will worry India, but it was the kind of straightforward, controlled win Pakistan have often failed to close out in this competition.

Backing spin to defend a total on a Dubai surface that slows through an innings is the one clear tactical decision Pakistan have made in this tournament, and it worked first time.

What the semi-final draw looks like

The knockouts are seeded across the two groups. The winner of Group A meets the runner-up from Group B on 10 September, and the winner of Group B meets the Group A runner-up on 11 September.

Group B contains Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia, who are making their first appearance in the tournament. Sri Lanka have beaten the UAE by nine wickets and Bangladesh have beaten Indonesia, which points to a familiar top two.

That structure means finishing second in Group A is not simply a worse outcome than finishing first. It changes which side a team meets in the last four, and every match left in the group stage still moves those pairings.

What is at stake beyond qualification

For Pakistan, the value of the India fixture is not the two points. It is the chance to post a competitive score against the strongest attack in the tournament before a knockout match they are close to reaching.

Their batting has been the weakness in these meetings rather than their bowling. Getting through the new ball and setting something India have to chase properly would be worth more to them than the group position.

The final is on 13 September, and India, with seven titles, are the side everyone else in the draw is trying to get past.

Pakistan sit second in Group A with two points and need one more from their remaining fixtures against India and Hong Kong to reach the semi-finals.

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